JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — As the 2026 Local Government Elections approach, the historic tripartite alliance faces unprecedented strain. Political analyst Professor Dirk Kotze warns that the African National Congress (ANC) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) are navigating a deeply fractured relationship, with the SACP fielding independent candidates and threatening the coalition’s coherence ahead of the crucial polls.
The ANC recently launched its election campaign in Diepsloot, while the SACP is simultaneously finalizing its own manifesto and fielding independent candidates in key working-class areas such as Crossroads. According to Professor Dirk Kotze, this strategic divergence underscores a long-standing grievance from the SACP. The party has frequently accused the ANC of only engaging with them during election cycles, while maintaining minimal direct contact at the summit council level in the intervening years.
A significant setback for the SACP’s independent electoral ambitions is the stance of COSATU. Despite the SACP’s historical reliance on trade union support, COSATU reaffirmed its backing for the ANC during the recent launch of the ANC’s election manifesto. Professor Kotze noted that the SACP’s poor performance in recent by-elections, combined with this lack of public endorsement from COSATU, severely limits their electoral prospects and isolates them within the broader labor movement.
The rift extends beyond electoral strategy into core ideological differences. Professor Kotze pointed out that the SACP remains highly critical of the government’s increasing reliance on the private sector, public-private partnerships, and outsourcing. This stance stands in direct contrast to President Ramaphosa’s economic plan, which prioritizes private sector involvement in infrastructure development and broader economic growth. This ideological drift indicates there is very little practical common ground remaining between the communist party and the ANC.
At the local government level, where politics directly impacts citizens through service delivery issues like water shortages, electricity outages, deteriorating roads, and unemployment, the ANC faces a steep uphill battle. Professor Kotze emphasized that the ANC’s current focus areas are not new, echoing the manifestos from the 2016 and 2021 local elections. The core challenge for the ANC is not identifying new policies, but rather reversing a steady decline in public perception and electoral support that has been evident since they lost control of major metropolitan municipalities in 2016.
Compounding the ANC’s challenges is the continued presence of the MK party. Building on the dynamics of the 2024 national elections, where the ANC’s losses were primarily absorbed by the MK party, the latter is expected to be a formidable competitor in the 2026 local elections. Professor Kotze cautioned that the MK party is poised to capture a significant portion of the ANC’s traditional support base, particularly in eThekwini and other parts of KwaZulu-Natal.
Ultimately, the 2026 Local Government Elections will serve as a critical stress test for the ANC’s ability to regain voter trust, while simultaneously acting as a referendum on whether the tripartite alliance can survive its deepest ideological and operational divides in decades.
Â