A new report by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) has revealed that governance in South Africa has not improved under the Government of National Unity (GNU), while warning that the ANC risks losing control of Mpumalanga and the Free State after the 2029 elections.
The report, authored by political analyst Professor Susan Booysen, highlights the growing influence of coalition politics—previously confined to local government—on national governance. Booysen noted that the GNU has adopted tactics seen in unstable local coalitions, including reliance on small parties to secure majorities.
Coalition Chaos Spreading to National Level
Booysen pointed to the ANC’s recent scramble to pass the budget with the help of minor parties as evidence of this trend. “We see tiny, microscopic parties acting as kingmakers, switching allegiances—just like in local governments,” she said.
The report also found that governance remains weak across municipalities, with poor service delivery, financial mismanagement, and a lack of accountability persisting regardless of whether coalitions or single-party governments are in power.
ANC’s Provincial Dominance Under Threat
One of the most striking findings is the ANC’s declining support in Mpumalanga and the Free State, where the party barely secured 52% and 51% of the vote in the 2024 elections. If current trends continue, these provinces could slip from ANC control by 2029.
“These provinces sit on the edge,” Booysen said. “The ANC may still be the largest party, but it could lose outright majorities.” The Eastern Cape and Limpopo remain ANC strongholds, but even there, internal divisions and governance failures pose risks.
Little Hope for Improvement Before 2026 Elections
With coalition governments expected to dominate future elections, Booysen expressed skepticism about immediate improvements. “One has to hope for better leadership and political will, but the empirical evidence doesn’t show it,” she said.
The report warns that without stronger accountability, governance crises at both local and national levels will deepen, further eroding public trust in South Africa’s political institutions.
For more insights, the full MISTRA report will be released next month.