JOHANNESBURG, Gauteng — As the African National Congress (ANC) prepares for its historic Johannesburg mayoral candidate announcement ahead of the 2026 local government elections, political commentator Leeto Nthoba warns that the ruling party suffers from a severe “question deficit,” lacking bold members willing to challenge the direction of its leaders.
The ANC is set to host a major event at the Sandton Convention Centre to unveil its mayoral hopeful for Johannesburg, followed by the launch of its 2026 local government elections manifesto in Rivonia, north of the city. This marks the first time in the party’s history that mayoral candidates will be announced prior to the elections. According to Nthoba, a lecturer at the Central University of Technology, the battle for key metros—particularly Johannesburg, eThekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay—will determine whether the governing party can retain its municipal footholds amid severe service delivery pressures and shifting coalitions.
Nthoba argues that the ANC is currently trapped in a difficult political position, desperately seeking salvation. The party faces a dilemma: it can either rely on popular, established figures—whose tenure has been marred by service delivery failures and public contempt—or pursue a renewal route with entirely new faces, which risks a trust deficit with communities unfamiliar with them.
Reflecting on a decade of missed opportunities, Nthoba pointed to former ANC Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe’s call for organizational renewal and self-correction. However, Nthoba noted that in the process of quieting dissent, Mantashe purged branches of true believers and talented individuals who could have carried the organization’s mandate forward. Today, this has left the ANC hamstrung by a cadre of “yes men and yes women” who offer no internal checkpoints or sounding boards.
“Everything that the president says is yes. Everything the secretary-general says is yes. Even when they’re clearly wrong, there’s nobody to stand in their way,” Nthoba observed, highlighting the chilling effect on internal debate and referencing the political repercussions previously faced by prominent female figures like Dlamini-Zuma following dissenting parliamentary votes concerning President Ramaphosa.
To counter this talent deficit, Nthoba suggested the ANC should blend younger and experienced individuals, potentially reaching into the South African Communist Party (SACP) for candidates in smaller municipalities rather than allowing the SACP to contest independently. He also urged the ANC to drop its pride and actively recruit former members who have successfully rejuvenated their political careers outside the party.
Acknowledging the steep uphill battle, Nthoba predicted that Johannesburg is likely lost for the ANC, with eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay also poised to be highly contentious. He advised the ANC to strategically strengthen areas it can realistically win to demonstrate genuine renewal, much like the opposition does.
The opposition has already mobilized high-profile contenders for Johannesburg:
- Democratic Alliance (DA): The DA has fielded former Cape Town mayor and Western Cape premier Helen Zille. Nthoba described Zille as a cutthroat and dogged leader who laid the foundation for modern Cape Town, signaling that the DA views reclaiming Johannesburg as a make-or-break fight.
- Rise Mzansi: Political analyst and activist Lukhona Mnguni has emerged as a knowledgeable “dark horse” candidate. His campaign resonates with residents frustrated by water and electricity outages, framing the city’s mismanagement as the work of thieves (“amakhankatha”). This contrasts Rise Mzansi’s business-friendly, forward-thinking image with the ANC’s current struggles.
- ActionSA: Former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba is positioning himself as the outsider returning to fix the metro, with a strong campaign message focused on ridding the city of illegal immigrants. However, Nthoba cautioned that Mashaba’s success is heavily reliant on coalitions, and his past achievements risk being co-opted by rival parties like the EFF.
- Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): The EFF has nominated Dr. Tlaleng Mofokeng, a highly educated clinician and former UN special rapporteur with strong international diplomacy experience. While a formidable candidate on paper, Nthoba warned her chances could be muddied by the EFF’s current political weaknesses and potential voter reluctance to elect an educated Black woman from a deeply divisive party.
- Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has nominated Mlungisi Mabaso.
- Build One South Africa (BOSA) has nominated Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster.
- Land Party has nominated Nitsiki Mazwai.
Regarding the ANC’s internal dynamics, speculation points to a potential contest between Executive Mayor Dada Morero and Executive Deputy Mayor Loyiso Masuku. Nthoba dismissed this as mere internal party factionalism. He argued that if the current leadership were genuinely focused on fixing service delivery, the city’s challenges would have been addressed by now.
“South Africans and Joburgers, in particular, should ask themselves if the election of this person is going to change the status quo, and how,” Nthoba concluded, emphasizing that a fresh election alone is insufficient without a concrete, actionable plan to tackle municipal debt and service delivery failures.