In a development described as “narrative-changing” for South African politics, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has secured its first-ever victory in a pure township ward, winning the Evaton West by-election in Emfuleni, Gauteng. Elections analyst Wayne Sussman characterized the result as “sensational,” noting that Emfuleni has long been an African National Congress (ANC) stronghold.
The DA’s victory was narrow, achieved by a margin of approximately eight to nine votes. According to Sussman, the outcome hinged on a single voting district where the ANC’s support collapsed from over 50% to just 21%, while the DA and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) made significant inroads.
“This is an historic result for the Democratic Alliance. They’ve never ever won a township ward where the population is overwhelmingly black. This is a breakthrough for them,” Sussman stated.
The analyst suggested the win may reflect a “Midvaal effect,” where residents in neighboring municipalities observe perceived improvements in service delivery under DA-led administration in Midvaal and shift their support accordingly. However, Sussman noted that Evaton West is geographically closer to Johannesburg and Orange Farm than to Midvaal, potentially extending the political implications to South Africa’s largest city.
Sussman also highlighted the importance of local leadership, pointing to DA mayoral candidate Kingsol Chabalala, a veteran provincial legislator known for championing Emfuleni issues, as a factor in the party’s ground-level engagement.
The results present challenges for both the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Sussman observed that the ANC is losing support across the political spectrum—to parties on the right like the DA and PA, and to breakaway formations on the left, including the African Economic Freedom Party (AEF) and the South African Communist Party. The EFF also saw a dramatic decline in its vote share in the ward.
In contrast, the ANC recorded an emphatic victory in a Mahikeng ward in the North West province, increasing its vote share from 58% to 73%. The EFF’s support in that ward fell from 29% to 20%, while the United Christian Democratic Party secured approximately 7% of the vote. However, Sussman flagged a concern: voter turnout in the Mabatu voting district within that ward was only 15%, significantly below the overall by-election average of 42% and down from 39% in 2021.
“These results underscore the volatile and fragmented nature of the electorate heading into local government elections,” Sussman said. “The ANC, particularly after the Gauteng result, is on the back foot now and needs to find great candidates which can connect with communities, find credible mayoral candidates which can turn the negative sentiment towards the party in Gauteng and in many other parts of the country around. This is a key, key few weeks for them.”
The by-elections unfolded against a backdrop of growing concern over municipal governance. The Standing Committee on Public Accounts (SCOPA) recently issued a warning that municipalities across South Africa are financially unviable, a situation with direct consequences for service delivery, infrastructure maintenance, and economic stability.
In response, the ANC’s National Executive Committee has reportedly made local government reform its singular focus. This follows internal disciplinary actions, including the dismissal of a cabinet minister from her portfolio and subsequent resignation from parliamentary and party leadership positions.
Meanwhile, residents of Johannesburg are confronting steep tariff increases. Sussman acknowledged the difficulty of the situation, noting that while the hikes are “objectionable,” municipalities face a dilemma: address infrastructure and revenue challenges now or risk more severe adjustments later. He emphasized that improving rates collection and ensuring funds are used without corruption are critical to restoring municipal viability and public trust.
As South Africa approaches its local government elections, these by-election results signal both opportunity and urgency for political parties to demonstrate credible leadership, tangible service delivery, and a renewed connection with voters in communities across the country.