With fuel prices already severely affecting the cost of living in South Africa, looming taxi fare increases are set to place even greater pressure on ordinary citizens, according to social forecaster Carmen Murray.
Speaking on the worsening financial landscape, Murray warned that global geopolitical instability, oil volatility, and disruptions in the Middle East are creating major uncertainty around oil supply, pricing, and energy security. She noted that shipping route disruptions are also contributing to consumer anxiety, with some South Africans questioning whether another pandemic or shutdown could be on the horizon.
“I have never ever seen so many people doing research online trying to understand which fuel provider has the best long-distance fuel and should I be using 93 versus 95? Will my engine blow up?” Murray said. “Those kind of questions are not normal questions that we used to see in the past.”
She described the latest increase in petrol and diesel as among the steepest seen in recent years.
Murray explained that in South Africa, not everyone has the privilege to work from home. Millions of people commute using four taxis just to get to work. High fuel costs, she said, make it harder for people to look for jobs and access opportunities, particularly affecting young people who must travel to universities.
The rising transport costs also impact food price inflation, school transport, energy costs, electricity, goods, taxi fares, and healthcare access, Murray added. Small businesses are feeling the hit as well.
“The cost of living is becoming significantly heavier for the consumer in an already financially strained environment,” she said. “We are seeing a tremendous increase in debt — 30-day loans, pay now or loan now, pay later — and this is also going to have a massive ripple effect on the economy. What is happening at the pump is cascading through the economy.”
Murray described the pressures as “highly interconnected,” noting that South Africa relies heavily on transport to move food, goods, workers, and services across the country. When fuel transport costs rise, the cost of moving essentials through the supply chain increases immediately, with manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and delivery services eventually passing those costs down to the consumer.
She coined the term “survival fatigue” to describe what people are experiencing since the pandemic.
“People are exhausted. People are burnt out. People feel that they are contributing to the economy — they’re doing their utmost best just to keep all the pots on the stove,” Murray said. “There is tremendous stress on families, and this emotional exhaustion, anxiety, and feeling of hopelessness. What do I have to look forward to?”
She added that many people feel trapped in a vicious cycle where income no longer translates into stability or progress, with the middle class being heavily impacted. Uncertainty around artificial intelligence and job market disruption is causing people to “job hug” — holding onto their jobs for dear life.
Meanwhile, the minibus taxi industry has confirmed that fare hikes are unavoidable due to high fuel prices. Some taxi associations across the country have already increased prices, with others likely to follow. The industry has agreed to an increase of between two rand and six rand for local trips, while long-distance trips are going up by between 10 and 30 rand.
One industry representative noted that many vehicles use diesel, now priced at just over 35 rand per litre, and that associations yet to hike would likely do so by mid-month or month-end. The industry has called on government to intervene with a special dispensation, pointing out that the taxi industry — as the majority public transport mover — has not enjoyed subsidies like minority public transport movers.
One commuter acknowledged the difficult position of taxi operators, saying: “They do have to raise it because they are doing business as well. You cannot do a business without a profit.” Another commuter, who works near where they live, said the increase would not affect them as much as others who travel longer distances.
Taxi associations have asked commuters to be understanding, saying they too are caught between a rock and a hard place.