HEALING OUR LAND - ENDS, WAYS AND MEANS
By Roland de Vries, 1 September 2022
INTRODUCTION
The very fabric of South African society is in great danger as this is written. Many people still cannot accept that if the worst happens there could be an unravelling of civil society to an extent far beyond anything that our communities, the very lifeblood of our continued existence and progress, have ever experienced.
It might never happen, of course, but there is too much at stake simply to fall back on the old South African belief that “alles sal regkom” All the indications are that all will not come right if we just let things slide for a while. We are reaching a T-junction in our history, and it is up to us – the people, no matter which level of society we come from – to choose the right road, to travel in hope and Faith, but simultaneously to prepare ourselves for the worst. 
There is an old saying that fortune favours the brave; and the time has come for us to be brave and make sure our feet are on that road. If worst comes to worst, there will not be a second chance.
THE CURRENT REALITY
The current reality pertaining to the precarious situation South Africa finds itself in are summarised below. 
Ill-fated governance by the ANC for almost three decades and the outcomes of its national policy have caused an economic crisis in South Africa, the collapse of investment, poor economic growth, and the further deterioration in living standards. These mirror the chaotic state of governance and mismanagement in public administration and poor service delivery by the many district and local municipalities under ANC control. It seems that the ANC government does not have the ability – or perhaps the will - to escape from its self-inflicted wounds of corruption and mismanagement.
South Africa is being held captive by the state’s unrealistic Covid-19 restrictions, which have engendered frustration, alienation, and anxiety among people of all classes in our society and have hamstrung economic growth with little prospect of an improvement in the foreseeable future.
 
At the same time its austerity policy has resulted in painful budget cuts in the vitally important building-blocks we need for our present and future security and progress, such as policing and education – while at the same time pumping billions into South African Airways, which on the priority list ranks as little more than an unnecessary vanity project whose main aim is that South Africa retain its own national airline, which is hardly a necessity. One could also mention another vanity project, providing troops for hopeless peace-keeping interventions in faraway countries like the Congo. It seems to have been forgotten that a soldier’s primary duty is protecting the national sovereignty, or the direct interests of that sovereignty. One might ask what our soldiers were doing in the Central African Republic, fighting off a horde of rampaging terrorists without even having the armoured vehicles they needed so desperately. 

The ANC government has given up on job creation – which is not the same thing as setting up temporary public works programmes - and have run out of ideas. South Africa has a 34.4% unemployment rate (second quarter of 2021), or 44.4% when discouraged work seekers are included. As such 7.8 million South Africans are unable to support themselves or improve their lives. But the government prefers to ignore the bottom line in this respect – that it is not the state’s job to create real jobs, but to create the conditions in which jobs create themselves.

Serious concern grips vulnerable communities in South Africa – from struggling middle communities down to the very poor and most vulnerable - about the escalating crime situation and political atrocities, which plague the nation! South Africa is currently regarded as one of the countries suffering the highest violent crime rates in the world, with murder at the top of the list and followed by brutal and frequently homicidal farm attacks, home invasions, illegal land occupation, housebreaking, vehicle hijackings and stock theft. All of our provinces have become targets, the only difference being the number of such assaults in the various regions. In short, we have become the happy hunting-grounds of predators.

Our economy, including the financial sector, and our food, legal, and security systems are all under great pressure. Illegal protests, illegal road closures, political unrest, and violent crime, poverty and unemployment are on the rise. This is exacerbated by civil disobedience, generally in densely populated areas. It needs to be envisaged what will happen if the social grants can no longer be paid by the ANC government, or when the contentious bills on land expropriation (the Section 25 amended) without compensation and the restriction on the possession of self-defence arms by civilian owners are passed. The likely implication is that South Africa is hovering on the brink of a prolonged criminal surge by gangs and certain political organisations which could cause widespread further outbreaks of rebellion and anarchy like the KZN insurrection in July-August 2021.

The ANC government and its security apparatus clearly do not possess the will or capability to protect its citizens adequately – and it follows that the less effective the state and private security organisations are in maintaining law and order, the greater the pressure will be on the broader community to protect itself from crime and terrorism.

On a positive note, South Africa has abundant fertile land and natural resources to ensure economic growth, development, and stability. Our people need to be supported and allowed to toil their soil!

It is relevant to look at the miracles which happened on the ground in KZN during the recent insurrection in July-August 2021. Ordinary peace-loving people from all stations in life worked and are still working together to protect themselves and support each other – law-abiding people of all colours and creeds who had and have taken control of their own safety and destiny. It cannot be doubted that our only hope at this moment in time lies in self-protection, self-governance and securing own livelihoods, and to keep working together from the ground upwards to heal our land. Finding a fair and adequate political solution in which the government serves the citizenry, instead of the top-down current reality, is naturally the only accepted end-goal – but that is a medium- to long-term process which cannot proceed till the wounds of the present have been at least partly healed.

A GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE CRIMINAL AND POLITICAL THREAT

The Underlying Threat Against South Africa

The underlying threat against South Africa – one which has become almost completely obscured by the current political in-fighting - is the looming possibility of an overthrow of law and order by criminals, which would include not just ordinary looting but also incitement to commit more deeds of wrong-doing and outright acts of terror. There are more than enough hands to do this ghastly work - not only ordinary lawbreakers motivated solely by greed, but also organised criminals and/or certain political groups, and individual destabilisers who are diligently pursuing their own extra-legal agendas. 

It needs hardly be said that in such situations the law-abiding citizens are handicapped by the very need to act within the confines of the law, whereas criminals do not play by the rules; in their twisted world might is right, and the weak go to the wall. They will use and abuse anything to advance their aims; they do not care about the principles or authority of the law, even if that means shedding innocent blood.

Yet it cannot be otherwise. Simply breaking the law in order to rein in the actual lawbreakers is the antithesis of true democracy; as a famed philosopher once pointed out, when one fights monsters, one must take care not to become a monster oneself.

The core of the problem is often rooted in inadequate political and social conditions and poor municipal service delivery by the state. To make it worse, unacceptable lawlessness is encouraged by the hate speech of certain left-wing as well as right-wing activists. All of this is symptomatic in a country in which the state and its police do not provide adequate protection for peace-loving people.

Communities must therefore organise and empower themselves to take lawful measures against crime and other acts of terror, for as long as it takes, until the government decides or is compelled to govern honourably and provide its people with the adequate protection that will provide them with the means and opportunities to uplift themselves.

The threat can be described as any real or potential condition or situation that could result in the serious injury or death of people, or damage to or loss of equipment, property and facilities provided to improve their lot. This specifically refers to any form of human misconduct and acts of terror (for example the high incidence of farm murders and atrocities against families), which is currently in full swing in South Africa. This is not to mention other threats, not only natural ones like droughts but man-made disasters like setting veld fires and torching infrastructure.

It is also a fact that political and economic turmoil, and the consequent undermining of law and order can lead to escalating political and criminal conflict and even anarchy, if not managed or contained by the state. It can even degenerate into full-scale civil war with all the dreadful consequences we have seen among our neighbours and near-neighbours on this continent.

All of this leads to one inevitable conclusion: The only way out is for endangered communities to take control of their situation and look after their own safety and well-being to the maximum extent allowed. And the only way to do that is by way of considerable planning so that deliberate action can be taken if necessary. Merely reacting to an emerging situation means only one thing: The community has already lost control of the situation before it has lifted a finger in its own defence. Classically, this is how tragedies happen, when communities take the law into their own hands in reaction. 

The only way to prevent that is to be prepared ahead of time, so that any action taken remains within the bounds of the common law – even when there is no-one official to enforce it. It would not be easy, but vigilante “justice” is no justice at all. And that requires three things: Firstly, a well-thought-out action plan, secondly, a structure that provides the necessary control and direction, and thirdly the will to implement such preparations.

The Most Likely Manifestation of the Threat by Criminals and Political Agitators

The most likely threat manifests itself as common criminal acts, which can quickly escalate to violent crime and political unrest. The locations of such acts are usually determinants. For example, stock and game theft are a major problem in rural areas, especially around highways and secondary roads, which provide for the quick removal of the stolen livestock.

Many homes and farmhouses are extremely vulnerable to criminal action because they are inadequately protected.

In certain remote areas, terrain, and distance present telecommunication challenges.

Poor socio-economic conditions have an escalating effect on crime, especially when their validity is questioned by the citizenry. For example, the government’s drastic outright forbidding – later extended without warning - on tobacco and alcohol during the 2020 lockdown resulted in an enormous growth of illegal cigarette and liquor smuggling that cost the Treasury billions in legitimate taxation – and the growth of powerful new criminal syndicates … and the people who suffered the most were the poor.

There are clear indications of organised crime escalating geographically and in intensity (more gangs being formed, also including what you might call “junior gangs”), caused by the restrictive effects of the Covid-19 measures, especially in densely populated urban areas and informal settlements. Take note of this threat to industrial areas and associated labour unrest and illegal road closures.

Poor municipal service delivery can serve as a source of public unrest. Strikes and road closures by rioting crowds may occur. Certain political parties and groupings are the origin of many acts of political incitement, which can lead to severe intimidation, home attacks, murder, public unrest, and illegal land occupation.

There is an ever-present danger that violent crimes – among other things armed robberies and attacks on homesteads – will increase.

The illegal encroachment and occupation of land is already a reality, and its escalation poses a significant threat. The proposal on land expropriation without compensation in Section 25 of the Constitution can trigger a psychosis of illegal occupation of both state property and private property.

It is predicted that corruption in local government circles will increase, rather than decrease. The latter will have a negative effect on municipal service delivery, which in turn will cause an increase in crime and political unrest, and thereby pose a further threat to food security.

The dissemination of and action on false intelligence and unverified intelligence poses a significant threat to the security of communities.

The Most Dangerous Threat by Criminals and Political Agitators

The impact of impending local and national elections must be thoroughly evaluated, to determine the impact on crime and political unrest and to predict more accurately regarding the current trends, such as increasing attacks on homesteads and illegal land occupation.

It is highly likely that left-wing as well as right-wing activism will increase. This includes the increase in political and labour-oriented unrest. It is predicted that civil disobedience could increase drastically.

Protest marches, demonstrations, and other actions aimed at general disruption can therefore be expected, and can degenerate into scenarios of the Coligny-Hermanus-Velddrif-Riebeek-Kasteel-KZN type, involving arson, looting and various individual risks to the welfare of the inhabitants. In addition, poor public service delivery, in various towns in almost all areas can lead at any time to high levels of civil disobedience, taxi violence and the unlawful closure of roads.

It is predicted that illegal grabs of both state and private property will increase. Furthermore, it is predicted that the threat posed by the government of land expropriation without compensation will fuel the revolutionary conflict situation in South Africa. This means that violent crime can escalate vertically (i.e., in intensity) and horizontally (i.e., geographically) in the foreseeable future.

The great distances that both the SAPS and more specifically its public order police units (POPS) have to cover make it easy for destabilisers to carry out their criminal intentions before the SAPS can respond effectively.

The inability of the SAPS in certain areas to combat crime effectively places a great burden on communities to protect themselves. If not managed properly, it can provoke conflict.

The danger exists of illegal far-right activities that can provoke conflict and agitators who can provoke unthinking people to act recklessly.

CONCLUSION

The above scenario is a daunting one, but it is not insoluble. There is only one way to combat it, however, and that is for all our communities to brace themselves for a possible confrontation. One thinks of the old saying that God helps those who help themselves. If communities help themselves and their fellow communities, they can survive this threat not only to themselves but also to their children and grandchildren and we can do so in Faith!

The healing of our land can only be achieved in close collaboration with our Heavenly Father, when our people are safe, relations are harmonised, and economic growth is obtained.

The aforementioned ideal includes securing the livelihood and safety of all law-abiding-peace-loving citizens and ensuring the delivery of essential services and commodities, and adequate food resources. We therefore need to stand together for what is right and be strong in Faith! As such the community is a force to be reckoned with, which finds strength in the following words from the Bible: “Romans 15:1 – We then who are strong ought to bear with the scruples of the weak and not to please ourselves …”!