With the first voter registration weekend scheduled for 20 and 21 June 2026, South Africa’s upcoming local government elections are expected to deepen coalition politics across many of the country’s metros, with the ANC facing a steep challenge in Gauteng’s key battlegrounds — particularly Johannesburg.
According to political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast, the era of one-party dominance has passed. “They have accepted the reality that one party dominance is a thing of the past and that the hegemony of the ANC has been dealt a blow,” he said. “The electoral decline of the ANC has given rise to these coalition arrangements on a large scale.”
Breakfast predicted that several major metros will see no outright winner, including Nelson Mandela Bay and the City of Johannesburg. “I can bet my bottom dollar… that has been the trend covering the period of 2016 until to date,” he noted.
47% feel politically homeless
The remarks follow a recent Ipsos study showing that 47% of South Africans feel politically homeless. Breakfast offered multiple interpretations, saying the findings point to a lack of trust in the political elite and deep frustration among voters.
“One can argue that the findings mean that people have a lack of trust towards the political elite,” he said. “There tends to be a behavior that permeates across the political spectrum amongst the political elite. You might find that political parties — the things they purport to be vehemently opposed to — they also do them when in power, and that makes the electorate not have trust towards the leaders.”
Despite this disillusionment, Breakfast noted that 64% of respondents still say they will vote, partly because local government is the sphere closest to people’s daily lives. “Even if people don’t vote, they will have a government because someone will vote for them. So they might as well vote.”
Over 500 parties, but confusion mounts
With more than 500 political parties on the ballot, the professor acknowledged that such a “shopping list” can create confusion. “When you have a shopping list of political parties, that can create confusion to the extent that it can make voters discouraged and not want to vote because there’s too much on the menu,” he said, while noting that Section 19 of the Constitution guarantees the right to form a party.
Rural-urban divide expected
Breakfast also predicted a growing bifurcation between urban and rural South Africa. While the ANC is likely to maintain support in rural areas — partly due to longstanding ties with traditional leaders — urban centers tell a different story.
“Voters in urban centers tend to be more rational. They don’t vote in relation to partisanship. They vote in relation to whether the party they vote for or the candidate is able to get the job done,” he explained. “That’s why from 2016 until to date, the ANC has declined on a large scale in urban centers.”
Youth trust in IEC a concern
Asked about findings that 40% of young people do not trust the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), Breakfast urged caution. “Young people constitute the majority of eligible voters,” he said, but added: “Personally, I for one cannot cast any aspersions on the IEC. They have conducted many elections in a very credible way. Yes, sometimes there are gaps because they are human beings, but I really don’t think they should be questioned in a way that questions their integrity.”
He concluded that the strong link between service delivery and voter turnout remains critical. “If our leaders can render services on a large scale, it will be much easier for the electorate to vote — because they can see that the things they are voting for are being done in practice, not only in theory.”