As the new year begins, political analysts are forecasting a turbulent 2026, with looming local government elections expected to accelerate the fragmentation of South Africa’s political scene. The potential collapse of the long-standing Tripartite Alliance and instability within major parties are seen as central to the unfolding drama.
In a recent television interview, Dr. Ntsikelelo Breakfast, acting director of the Centre for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University, provided a stark assessment. He identified the South African Communist Party’s (SACP) declared intention to contest elections independently as the most critical threat to the African National Congress (ANC).
“The biggest loser unfortunately is going to be the ANC,” stated Dr. Breakfast. He explained that the SACP would be competing for the same working-class vote base that has traditionally supported the ANC. “That is going to split the votes,” he added.
This move follows a recent ANC National General Council decision to exclude SACP members from its internal strategic campaign meetings. Dr. Breakfast suggested this has pushed the communist party to a “point of no return,” signalling a likely end to the Tripartite Alliance. “To me it means that the tripartite alliance is over,” he said.
The analyst’s overview of the year ahead painted a picture of widespread coalition governments, with no single party expected to secure outright victories in key metros like Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay, and eThekwini. He predicted only the Democratic Alliance (DA) would likely retain clear control in Cape Town.
However, Dr. Breakfast also highlighted severe internal challenges for the DA, which faces threats from both the growing Patriotic Alliance and very public internal strife. “You have leaders now who don’t function as a unified force… crossing swords in public,” he noted, adding that this dents the party’s image of stability and clean governance.
The local elections, he argued, are about more than service delivery; they are a battleground for economic development and will be a referendum on performance. He drew a direct link between low voter turnout and the slow pace of service delivery in many municipalities.
The outcome of the polls could also destabilise national leadership. Dr. Breakfast stated that poor ANC results would increase the “fragility” of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position, as discontent simmers within the party over its dramatic drop in national support from 57% to 40% in the 2024 elections.
Other factors set to define 2026 include the DA’s upcoming leadership conference, where the incumbent faces a contest, and the anticipated findings of the Mokgapa Commission, whose preliminary reports have yet to be made public.
Dr. Breakfast concluded that the political environment remains highly volatile, with the old order of one-party dominance firmly in the past. The 2026 local government elections are now poised to be a decisive test for the survival of established political structures and alliances.