In a significant development within South Africa’s ruling tripartite alliance, a leading political expert has declared the alliance effectively over following the South African Communist Party’s (SACP) decision to contest the upcoming local government elections independently of the African National Congress (ANC).
The analysis comes from Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast, the Acting Director of the Center for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University, who provided a stark assessment of the political rupture.
According to Professor Breakfast, the ideological glue holding the alliance together—the National Democratic Revolution, a socialist model premised on a two-stage theory—has weakened. He argued that the SACP’s core grievance is the perceived slow pace of transition to the second phase, where the working class should benefit more. However, he identified the immediate, practical reason for the split as the SACP’s “limited footprint” in the current Government of National Unity (GNU).
The professor was highly skeptical of the SACP’s public position that it remains committed to the alliance while choosing to go it alone at the polls. “It doesn’t [make sense],” he stated, questioning the timing. “Why would you want to stand by yourself when your alliance partner is on the back foot?” He characterized the move as an opportunistic grab for “political power,” suggesting the SACP had used the ANC as a “smoke screen” to access influence and is now jumping ship as the ANC’s dominance wanes.
Professor Breakfast also cast doubt on the SACP’s official explanation for the sidelining of its high-ranking member, Gwede Mantashe—who is also the National Chairperson of the ANC—from its central committee. The SACP claimed it was a constitutional matter due to absenteeism, but the professor believes the real reason is a “conflict of interest” and underlying “trust issues” within the Communist Party regarding his dual leadership roles.
Furthermore, the expert poured cold water on the SACP’s electoral prospects, pointing to two major hurdles: funding and a fragmented voter base. “You don’t win elections by having a good message. You have to have money,” he noted, adding that the SACP would be competing with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) for the same working-class constituency, inevitably splitting the vote.
When asked directly if this move signifies the end of the decades-old alliance, Professor Breakfast’s answer was unequivocal: “Yes.” He explained that the SACP cannot “wear two caps” by leading the National Democratic Revolution project while simultaneously standing against the ANC. He also warned of “double standards,” recalling that the SACP has historically “purg[ed] people who hold divergent opinions,” a reference to past internal conflicts.
The dramatic split sets the stage for a highly contested local government election, with former allies now poised to become direct competitors, a move experts believe will further weaken the ANC’s chances at the polls.