A significant rupture is emerging within South Africa’s ruling Tripartite Alliance, following the South African Communist Party’s (SACP) declaration that it will contest the 2026 Local Government Elections independently, a move that has provoked a sharp warning from the African National Congress (ANC).
The announcement has thrust long-simmering tensions into the open, with ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula suggesting that dual members serving in government may soon be forced to choose their political allegiance. The threat implies a potential purge of SACP members from positions within the ANC-led government.
Political analysts are now questioning the survival of the decades-old alliance. In an interview, political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast characterized the SACP’s move as an act of political opportunism, accusing the party of preparing to “jump ship” now that its alliance partner is “down and out.”
“The writing is on the wall that the ANC is not going to bounce back… in the upcoming local government elections,” said Prof. Breakfast. “They have been using the ANC as a vehicle to access political power and now they can see that it doesn’t look like that is going to happen.”
Breakfast argued that the decision, made while the ANC is at its weakest electoral position since 1994, was not made in “good faith.” He predicted the split would harm the ANC’s electoral prospects further, as the party traditionally relied on the SACP’s grassroots network to navigate working-class communities.
The crisis also raises immediate questions about the future of SACP leaders who currently hold ministerial positions in the Government of National Unity (GNU), such as Blade Nzimande. Mbalula’s ultimatum on dual membership places their roles in direct jeopardy.
Prof. Breakfast was pessimistic about the conflict’s resolution under the current leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, suggesting the tensions are likely to escalate. He posited that the SACP’s manoeuvring may be linked to internal ANC factionalism, alleging the party is “gravitating where power is” and aligning itself with Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
“The real issue for the communist party… is political power. They like power and they can see that at the moment they don’t stand a chance to access that political power,” Breakfast stated.
Despite identifying the SACP’s strength in class analysis as a vital tool for understanding South Africa’s economic inequalities, Breakfast expressed deep skepticism about its viability as an independent party. He pointed to two critical weaknesses: a lack of funding and a failure to radicalize the working class.
“I don’t expect Rupert or Oppenheimer to fund them… You don’t win elections because you’ve got a good message. You have to have money,” he said, adding that the SACP had “failed dismally” to instill class consciousness in the South African working class.
The public spat and the analyst’s bleak assessment signal a potentially irreversible breakdown in the Alliance, setting the stage for a tumultuous realignment of South African politics ahead of the 2026 polls.