As South Africa gears up for the 2026 local government elections, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is showing signs of significant vulnerability, according to a recent analysis of post-general election by-elections.
Since the 2024 national polls, the ANC has struggled to maintain its footing in a series of by-elections. This period has been marked by sustained growth for opposition parties, most notably the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, led by former President Jacob Zuma. The MK Party has secured victories in 10 of the 88 by-elections it has contested.
Political analyst Sanet Solomon, in a recent interview, stated that the ANC’s recent performance is “a cause for concern,” as other parties are consistently performing better. Solomon pointed to the MK Party’s growth, the Patriotic Alliance’s inroads into various communities, and strong showings by ActionSA and the DA in certain by-elections as indicators of a shifting political mood.
“This basically gives us more or less of an idea of how people might vote in the coming elections,” Solomon said, suggesting the by-election trends could foreshadow challenges for the ANC in the upcoming local polls.
The analyst’s comments come on the eve of the ANC’s annual January 8th Statement event, to be held this year in the North West Province. Solomon predicts the party’s focus will be on “bread and butter” issues like water, service delivery, and unemployment, as it attempts to rally support ahead of the 2026 contest. However, she characterized the likely messaging as “nothing new, just a lot of political rhetoric and a lot of recycled sentiments,” including an emphasis on the party’s internal renewal agenda.
Solomon noted the choice of the North West, a traditional ANC stronghold, is strategic, suggesting the party is increasingly retreating to its core bases. “I think it could point to the awareness that they have a less of a support base,” she said, adding that the party did not fare well with last year’s event in the Western Cape.
The analyst highlighted a stark contradiction in these heartland provinces: despite strong historical support for the ANC, service delivery remains “appalling,” with issues like pit toilets in schools, collapsing infrastructure, poor roads, and high unemployment driving migration to wealthier provinces.
Further complicating the ANC’s path is the decision by its long-time ally, the South African Communist Party (SACP), to contest the local elections independently. Solomon believes the SACP, while not a major contender on its own, has “the ability to weaken the ANC” by further fragmenting its traditional support base, particularly among unionized workers.
Internally, the ANC’s role in the Government of National Unity (GNU) also faces strains. Solomon pointed to past tensions over legislation like the bailout bill and predicted future clashes over the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme. If the ANC continues to act unilaterally, she suggested, GNU partners like the DA and the Patriotic Alliance could seek alternative coalitions that exclude the ruling party.
Regarding opposition dynamics, Solomon noted internal “turbulence” at the national leadership level of the MK Party but said it continues to perform well locally by attracting former ANC councillors. She stated the party, built around the personality of Jacob Zuma, “still seem[s] to be doing very well” and has a “possibility of doing very well at the local government elections.”
In contrast, the newly formed party Afrika Mayibuye Movement led by Floyd Shivambu was described as likely to remain a “micropolitical party” that will not rival the major players, following the early departure of its deputy president and a low public profile.
With the local government elections on the horizon, the cumulative pressure from by-election losses, a key ally contesting separately, and GNU tensions presents one of the most formidable challenges to the ANC’s local dominance in the post-apartheid era.