The decades-old tripartite alliance that has powered South Africa’s ruling political bloc is showing significant signs of strain as its smallest member, the South African Communist Party (SACP), follows through on a resolution to contest elections independently.
The SACP’s decision, formalized at its 2022 and 2024 congresses, marks a dramatic shift from its traditional role of backing the African National Congress (ANC) ticket. However, the party’s initial foray into solo campaigning has yielded dismal results, raising serious questions about its viability and the future cohesion of the alliance ahead of the crucial 2026 local government elections.
The party’s poor performance was starkly illustrated in two recent by-elections. In the Fetakgomo Tubatse municipality, the SACP secured a mere 1% of the vote. This echoed an identical result from last month in a ward in Polokwane, which is located in Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema’s home territory.
Despite the electoral setbacks, SACP General Secretary Solly Mapaila has been vocal in defending the party’s new direction. In a public statement, Mapaila insisted the party is “not preoccupied with contesting the ANC,” which he stated “remains an ally as long as we share strategic objectives.”
Mapaila framed the decision to contest the 2026 elections as a move to “defend, advance, and deepen the national democratic revolution” and to confront what the party describes as a “failed neoliberal policy regime imposed since 1996.” He pointed to the party’s historical opposition to the ANC’s Gear (Growth, Employment and Redistribution) policy and subsequent economic plans as evidence of long-standing principled disagreements.
However, political analysts suggest the split is driven by more pragmatic concerns. Professor Alex van den Heever, an expert in public governance and local service delivery, argued that the move is a calculated response to the ANC’s declining electoral support.
“I think they see this as a necessary move given the drop in the ANC’s support,” stated Van den Heever. “If you stayed in the tripartite alliance, your possibility of getting positions reduces, so now you jump ship and see if you can do better on your own.”
He questioned the timing of the SACP’s principled stand, noting that the policy disagreements cited, like those over the Gear strategy, originated nearly three decades ago. “If you were making a principled decision, you’d do it in 1997 rather than in 2025 or 2026,” he observed.
Van den Heever also challenged the SACP’s narrative of being sidelined within the alliance, pointing out that its members have held numerous cabinet and executive government positions and must therefore share “collective responsibility for the state of South Africa today.”
The professor speculated that the SACP’s ultimate goal may not be to win a significant share of the vote but to position itself as a potential kingmaker in future coalition governments, where even 1-2% of the vote could grant it substantial leverage.
Yet, its current electoral performance suggests a tough road ahead. Van den Heever noted that the SACP lacks a distinct brand separate from the ANC and is competing against other, more established splinter groups with stronger ground operations.
Despite now becoming electoral competitors, both the SACP and ANC leadership maintain that the tripartite alliance—which includes trade union federation COSATU—will survive. According to Van den Heever, the SACP likely envisions a future where it reconnects with the ANC not as a junior discussion partner, but as an explicit coalition partner with its own elected representation.
The unfolding split threatens to further fragment the vote in municipalities already facing service delivery challenges, potentially leading to more complex and unstable coalitions after the 2026 polls.