As the South African government scrambles to find new export markets following the United States’ imposition of a 30% duty on key goods, industry leaders are raising concerns about the viability of shifting trade to China, citing risks of intellectual property theft and reduced profitability.
The tariffs, which affect sectors like agriculture, automotive, and textiles—previously benefiting from duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—have forced exporters to seek alternatives. However, industry representatives warn that China may not be a reliable replacement for the lucrative US market.
“Copy and Paste” Fears
Terry Gale, Chairman of Exporters Western Cape, expressed skepticism about China’s willingness to absorb South African manufactured goods, pointing to the Asian giant’s reputation for product duplication.
“China’s not going to help us,” Gale said. “If you send manufactured goods to China, we all know it’s copy and paste. Look at Temu, Shein—we’ve lost our clothing industry to them. Now suddenly, we’re expecting them to buy jackets from us that we can’t even make anymore. What are they actually going to buy from us that’s manufactured? That’s the problem.”
Gale emphasized that the US market, with its vast consumer base, would be difficult to replace.
Job Losses Loom as Profitability Drops
Meanwhile, the Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) warned of potential job cuts as producers struggle to secure markets that match the profitability of the US.
Dr. Justin Chadwick, CEO of the CGA, said the sector is urgently reassessing production capacity and may need to downsize. “You might have to reduce your workforce, given that profitability in new markets might not be similar to what you enjoyed in the US,” he explained.
While most of this year’s citrus shipments to the US have already been dispatched, concerns remain about the 2025 harvest.
Government Sees Opportunity in African Trade
Trade and Industry Minister Parks Tau, however, struck a more optimistic tone, suggesting the tariffs could accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Despite this, exporters remain cautious, with many questioning whether alternative markets can compensate for the loss of AGOA benefits—leaving South Africa’s trade future uncertain.