Security experts have pushed back against a warning by Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni that South Africa faces potential coup threats, insisting there is no evidence of an immediate risk.
Ntshavheni, who oversees state security, stated that the government had identified possible coup (Coup d’état) risks and implemented measures to counter them. However, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and other analysts say the country does not appear to be at heightened risk of a military takeover.
No Immediate Threat, But Political Instability a Concern
When questioned about the minister’s remarks, ISS researchers downplayed the likelihood of a coup but acknowledged broader concerns about political instability.
“I don’t think at this point we’re very concerned,” an expert said. “The minister was quite clear that she didn’t think there was really a meaningful threat of a coup. She indicated they were monitoring individuals who might be considering such actions.”
Ntshavheni defended her stance, stating, “We have identified [the risk] and put measures in place to mitigate against it.”
July 2021 Unrest a Warning Sign
While experts dismissed the idea of an imminent military coup, they pointed to the July 2021 riots—sparked by the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma—as an example of how political tensions could escalate into widespread unrest.
“A coup usually refers to the armed forces taking over from an elected government. I don’t think we have that problem in the country,” one analyst said. “But we saw in 2021 that there are powerful political interests willing to destabilize the country, potentially creating conditions where the military might intervene.”
Public Distrust in Institutions Fuels Anxiety
Beyond coup fears, South Africa’s security challenges include declining public confidence in law enforcement and the criminal justice system. Analysts warn that while there is no need for panic, the erosion of trust in state institutions could further destabilize the political climate.
As the debate continues, the government’s warnings appear aimed at preemptive risk management rather than responding to an active threat. For now, security experts maintain that South Africa is not on the brink of a coup—but the underlying tensions demand close monitoring.